Analysis: The polls nationally have narrowed. But the polls in the states that matter more in the GOP nomination process are actually worse for him, Aaron Blake writes.
. “Every once in a while, Fox will put up a phony poll … but I’m way ahead in New Hampshire. I’m way ahead in South Carolina. I’m way ahead in Iowa.”
Those last assertions are very far from true. And they spotlight an important aspect of the nascent 2024 GOP campaign. Indeed, if anything, those early-state polls speak to the possibility that Trump’s position in the 2024 primaries might be worse than national polls suggest. That’s because Republicans in the states that matter more also appear more eager to turn the page.
As things stand, Trump generally leads nationally by double digits in a crowded field, while DeSantis is very competitive, and in some cases has led, if youThe 2024 primary calendar is in some flux, but the early states on the GOP side appear steady for now, including Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
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