[ANALYSIS] Trump: Isolationist in instinct, unpredictable in action

How would Trump 2.0 deal with the Philippines in relation to the South China Sea?

This is AI generated summarization, which may have errors. For context, always refer to the full article.There are a number of certainties about the coming Trump administration. One is that it will be bad for the climate. Another is that it will be bad for American democracy. A third is that it will be largely bad for minorities and for women.Donald Trump

The grand strategy that Roosevelt inaugurated can best be called liberal internationalism. Following the end of the Second World War and the beginning of the competition with the Soviet Union, that strategy was consolidated as into “containment liberalism” by the late president Harry Truman and it has been the guiding approach of every administration ever since, with the exception of that of the Trump administration from 2017 to 2021.

For Trump, there is a second chance to remake US foreign policy beginning on January 20, 2025, and it’s unlikely he’ll allow partisans of the old regime to spoil his efforts a second time. In this regard, one must not be fooled by the pro-expansionist or interventionist rhetoric or record of some of his cabinet picks, like Marco Rubio. These folks have no fixed political compass but political self-interest and they will adjust to Trump’s instincts, outlook, and agenda.

Trump is not interested in expanding a liberal empire via free trade and the free flow of capital–an order defended by political canopy of multilateralism and promoted via an economic ideology of globalization and a political ideology of liberal democracy.

The European Union will be left to fend for itself, with Trump unlikely to invest any effort to prop up NATO, much less expand its remit to the Asia Pacific, as Biden has done. It would be a mistake to underestimate Trump’s resentment of the US’s western allies, which, in his view, have prospered at the expense of America.

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