Analysis: It’s looking less likely that Biden gets a primary challenger any time soon if he runs. But that doesn’t mean there won’t be a race.
At this point, it seems safe to assume he’ll get in. The questions at that point become: Will anybody else? And will Biden lock it down over the next year?Fewer Democrats want him to be their 2024 nominee
than Republicans who say the same of Donald Trump. But Biden is also the incumbent, making it a more fraught exercise to jump into the campaign against him. Democrats are also simply better at being team players in the Trump era.For now, basically everyone of substance is saying they wouldn’t do it. But that’s also the smart answer right now.
All of which is to say it’s not just about whether Biden gets in and then whether others join him; it’s also about how the party is feeling as the year progresses. It’s good to be unified, but it’s better to make sure you’re unified behind the right candidate before it’s too late. With that said, below are our bimonthly rankings of the top 10 Democrats most likely to be the 2024 Democratic nominee. As usual, this takes into account both their likelihood of running and their potential strength if they do.Others worth mentioning: Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, Sen. Sherrod Brown , Sen. Cory Booker , former New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu, Rep. Ro Khanna , North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez , Sen.
There’s a new conventional wisdom forming that it’s not so much that Democrats have a weak bench — it’s just that the strong part is relatively new, as Politico’s. And the new Pennsylvania governor is perhaps at the head of that class . That doesn’t mean he can turn around and run for president just months after winning his first term — that would be very difficult — but it does mean it’s worth keeping a keen eye on how he’s faring in the Keystone State.
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