Fact Checker: The CBO’s shifting view on the impact of the Obamacare individual mandate
attacking the CBO, accusing it of “faulty assumptions and bad numbers,” including “faulty baseline estimates.”
So budget instructions for the year were based on the March 2016 baseline, and the CBO was ordered to do its analysis of health-care proposals based on the old baseline. At the time, based on limited data available about how the Affordable Care Act impacted insurance markets, the CBO assumed that without a mandate, many people, especially younger, healthier Americans, would simply choose to not buy health insurance.that American Health Care Act would lead to 14 million fewer people insured than previously anticipated by 2018, the second year of the House GOP bill.
The big problem the CBO faced was that it was trying to model human behavior. The initial assumption was that people were motivated to buy insurance because of the mandate — if an individual did not get insurance, he or she would face a fine.
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