Analysis: Iraq's ambition to match Saudi oil output is out of reach

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Analysis: Iraq's ambition to match Saudi oil output is out of reach
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Iraq's oil output and capacity may peak following growth of around 25% over the next five years, falling short of 2027 targets and ending a long-standing ambition to rival the output of Saudi Arabia.

A general view shows an oil rig used in drilling at the Zubair oilfield in Basra, Iraq, July 5, 2022. REUTERS/Essam Al-Sudani/Actual output limited to 5.5 mln bpd by 2027 – Rystad EnergyLONDON, March 27 - Iraq's oil output and capacity may peak following growth of around 25% over the next five years, analysts said, falling short of 2027 targets and ending a long-standing ambition to rival the output of top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia.

It is too early for the new government to talk about any significant increases in Iraq's oil production outside the OPEC+ agreement, Jihad said. Under the agreement, Iraq's production target is 4.43 million bpd until December. Two decades after the war began, the current targets and the even lower forecasts are far off Iraq's post-war goal to take capacity to 12 million bpd.

Successive governments failed to sign off on Iraq's fifth licensing round in 2018. Six deals out of eleven oil and gas blocs on offer were eventually signed atThe beneficiaries were not the international oil companies, but UAE firm Crescent Petroleum and two Chinese companies. French oil major TotalEnergies is the latest to take on the project as part of a $27 billion deal to build four oil, gas and renewable projects over 25 years."Iraq is not the easiest place to invest with all risk," Pouyanne said.

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