Robert Fico's election win in Slovakia after he had campaigned to end military aid to Ukraine shows creeping discontent in Central Europe over the war with Russia, but analysts do not expect a major policy turn-around by Bratislava or Warsaw.
Leaders in the region, which was once under Soviet rule, have been whipping up nationalist sentiment in Hungary, Slovakia and even traditionally anti-Russian Poland, with support for Ukraine falling victim to short-term political manoeuvring to win votes.
"I don't believe the ascent of a single government in CEE, like that of Fico, will be the catalyst that leads to the collapse of support for Ukraine across the region," he said. This is a more middle-of-the-road group than a pre-election scenario of SMER plus SNS and Republika, a far-right party that failed to win any seats.
"He is cynical and pragmatic enough and knows that if he pressed too much against the EU, if he wanted to cancel sanctions on Russia, he would hit the wall there in the form of Pellegrini," Abraham said. His obvious ally is Orban, who was one of the first to congratulate him on his win. Orban's government has refused to send weapons to Ukraine and opposed EU sanctions against Russia, even though it never blocked them in the end.MOMENT OF TRUTH
Poland's ruling nationalist government, which leads polls ahead of the election, has expressed its support for Ukraine's membership, although relations with Kyiv cooled lately.
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