Americans are expecting inflation to improve in the coming months, according to new survey data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
In November, consumers’ median inflation expectations for the next year and three years out were 5.2% and 3%, respectively. That’s down from October’s median expectations of 5.9% and 3.1%. It’s the largest month-to-month drop in year-ahead inflation expectations since the Survey of Consumer Expectations launched in 2013, according to the New York Fed. Expectations for inflation five years from now fell by 0.1 percentage points to 2.3%, according to the Fed survey.
The survey also showed improvement in respondents’ sentiments about the labor market. Mean expectations for higher unemployment declined by 0.7 percentage points to 42.2%, and the mean perceived probability of finding a job increased while the probability of voluntarily leaving a job decreased. Consumers’ expectations for household income growth increased to a series high, the New York Fed noted. Home price growth expectations, however, continued to decline.
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