August is the month that features the biggest increase in tropical development, with a huge ramp-up often occurring in the back end of the month.
Water temperatures continue to increase across the Main Development Region giving fuel for developing complexes.And the Saharan dust and dry air from Africa quickly subside as the month progresses.August typically has a big uptick in activity as the month progresses.
This ramp-up continues into September, when activity continues to climb toward the peak of hurricane season on Sept. 10.So far in the Atlantic basin in 2023, it has been a touch more active than usual.The good news is the tropics look fairly quiet over the next several days.The area in the open Atlantic that has been watched closely over the last week is unlikely to develop.
Water temps are at record-setting levels across much of the Main Development Region, and wind shear is expected to be somewhat lower during the month of August.Some longer-range computer guidance is indicating more tropical waves may attempt to organize later in the month, which could lead to tropical depressions and tropical storms.It should be noted August can also be quiet. Just last year, no named storms developed in all of August.
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