Apple beat $NFLX to the first Best Picture win for a streaming service, while its price increase is unlikely to help with declining user growth. An earning preview from jswartz:
Netflix Inc.’s 2022 started with a thud, and then the streaming pioneer suffered a “slap” of its own on Oscar night.On Tuesday, April 19, the company will report fiscal-first quarter earnings, after its forecast sent shares into a spiral in January. The stock plummeted 22% after its last earnings report, lopping off $49.1 billion in market capitalization and making it the worst quarter for the stock in nearly a decade.
Read more: A tortoise-and-hare story: How Apple beat Netflix to a best-picture Oscar despite its later streaming start Meanwhile, with price hikes rolling out to subscribers, some members could drop Netflix for its growing cohort of competitors. New net subscriber additions are expected to wane — analysts on average predict 2.81 million in the first quarter, and 2.64 million in the second quarter, according to FactSet. That would lead to a first-half total of 5.45 million new subscribers, slightly down from 5.52 million in the first half last year.
What to expect Earnings: Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect, on average, Netflix to report first-quarter earnings of $2.95 a share, down from $1.57 a share a year ago. Stock movement: As of morning trading Tuesday, Netflix’s stock has nosedived 41% so far this year — among the worst Nasdaq 100 NDX, -0.36% performers — while the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.34% has declined 6%. Shares of Netflix are down 34% since the company last announced quarterly results.
“Looking past 1Q, we are tempering our estimates for 2022 and beyond as we take a more conservative approach to subscriber and ARPPU [average revenue per paying user] growth given worsening macro conditions and continued uncertainty around when/if acquisition growth will return to pre-pandemic levels,” Devitt said in an April 6 note.
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