Transmissions of the coronavirus are still occurring in China but at a slower rate
HEADLINES ABOUT the new coronavirus that started in China are grim. More than 1,000 people have died, exceeding the toll from the SARS outbreak in 2003. Despite stringent controls on movement, there are 64,000 confirmed or suspected cases of infections in China. And it is spreading around the world. But there is some good news: the number of new cases reported daily in China has been on a downward trend since February 4th.
Trying to forecast the trajectory of a new virus is complex, with scant initial information about how infectious it is. Several scientists made valiant attempts based on early data from China. Some warned that it might not peak until May, but that was before China implemented strict containment measures. The more pessimistic ones now look too gloomy. Cheng-Chih Hsu, a chemist at National Taiwan University, plugged different scenarios into a simple model for estimating the spread of epidemics .
It is too early to rest easy. SARS was never truly brought under control until warm summer air helped kill the virus. This time around, there are, as ever, questions about the reliability of official data showing the slowdown in infections. More worryingly, China’s apparent success is largely down to its lockdown of broad swathes of the country, which is hurting the economy.
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