An analyst believes data on automotive insurance registrations reveals that Tesla has strong demand in the key Chinese market.
Piper Jaffray estimates Tesla's third quarter deliveries – a closely watched measure of the company's sales – in China are up more than 175% compared to the same period last year.
Potter's research found that electric vehicle sales in China are increasingly made by unidentified "mystery buyers," as well as fleets. However, in sales to actual Chinese consumers, Pipper Jaffray says Tesla has been steadily increasing its market share. Most of the growth in China is being driven by the company's cheaper Model 3, Potter said, while deliveries of the higher profit margin Model S and Model X vehicles "have actually declined by nearly 25%" year-over-year for the months of July and August. Despite that drop, Piper Jaffray remains optimistic about Tesla's future in China.
"We think TSLA has been able to leverage lessons learned at Fremont and Gigafactory 1 to optimize the ramp of G3 in Shanghai; it took only ~9 months to construct, ahead of guidance," Kallo said. "We believe expectations for 3Q19 deliveries have come up, but a print [over 100,000] should be well received when deliveries are reported within the first 3 days of October," RBC analyst Joseph Spak said on Wednesday. "However, we continue to believe valuation is stretched with a lot of good already baked in."
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