Lower-income Republicans have much more progressive attitudes on economics than wealthy members of their party
IN RECENT decades, the word “Democrat” has become synonymous with progressive economics and “Republican” with fiscal conservatism. Those on the left are believed to be in favour of big government—high social spending, generous welfare and an ambitious regulatory scope—and those on the right opposed. This view is not entirely accurate.
Candidates including Elizabeth Warren , a senator from Massachusetts, are betting that they can win these voters by putting class struggle rather than identity at the forefront of their campaigns. Ms Warren has focused her campaign on a tax on the super-wealthy, reforming the campaign finance system and corporate tax-dodging, for example. Last week, she unveiled a plan specifically designed to appeal to disaffected voters in the heartland.
To succeed, Ms Warren’s approach relies on the de-emphasis of the politics of race. Anti-immigrant attitudes had a much bigger influence on Americans’ vote choice in 2016 than economic attitudes did. The odds that Mr Trump—who began his last campaign with a rhetorical assault on Mexican immigrants—will continue to rely on dog-whistle politics is high. On June 17th, he tweeted a proposal to expel millions of immigrants without documentation.
But if 2016 was about how Republicans exploited social polarisation and last year’s mid-terms were about how Democrats exploited attitudes toward health care, the 2020 election could be decided at least in part by Republicans’ divide on economic attitudes. Will Elizabeth Warren get the opportunity to try? This week, a survey of 1,500 Americans conducted on behalf ofby YouGov, a polling firm, found that 26% of the party’s primary voters prefer Joe Biden, the former vice-president, over any other candidate. But Ms Warren is on an upward swing. YouGov's poll was the second one in which Ms Warren polled even or higher than Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
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