It was an intensely frustrating week for the many who want change in Venezuela
1st, the day after the opposition announced a final push to oust Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s strongman was determined to show he was back in control. He used the method his regime knows best: swift, forceful repression of protests. Juan Guaidó, recognised by most Western and Latin American democracies as the country’s interim president, had promised the “biggest march in Venezuelan history” to prise open the cracks in the regime. It didn’t happen.
Mr Maduro, who started a second term in January after winning a sham election, has plunged the country into economic misery. But despite discontent, and occasional defections of small groups of soldiers, the regime has managed to keep the loyalty of the armed forces. American officials stress the role of Cuban intelligence surveillance in quashing military dissent. That is certainly important in preventing moves by individual commanders.
It is not the first time that the opposition has seemingly overplayed its hand. Some sections of it have long believed that pressure from the streets is sufficient to overthrow Mr Maduro. It has not been. “When the opposition feels it has an advantage it always goes for the kill shot and fails,” says the former American official.
It is widely asserted in Washington that the White House officials who have led the Venezuela effort believed that the army would switch sides in a matter of days. The longer the stand-off continues, the more problematic the strategy of President Donald Trump’s administration becomes.
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