NOAA's outlook for the 2023 hurricane season, released today, reflects the unpredictability of the upcoming season due to two dueling factors:
The 2023 hurricane season outlook is more challenging than usual.First, an El Niño is increasingly likely, which tends to tamp down the number of storms.Sign up for the Morning Brief email newsletterThe 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecast is more unpredictable than usual due to an "unprecedented" combination of two key competing forecast factors.
"This combination of an incipient El Niño and very warm north Atlantic sea-surface temperatures is unprecedented in the recent record," wrote the AG2 team in their outlook.Oh, and by the way, there's actually already been one storm this season. In early May the National Hurricane CenterThe first signal we're watching isn't in the Atlantic Ocean, but rather the waters near the equator in the Pacific Ocean.
The reason this strip of water far from the Atlantic Basin matters is that it's one of the strongest influences on hurricane season activity. But, according to the AG2 forecast team, Atlantic Basin water temperatures in spring correlate well to a hurricane season's activity.And much of the Atlantic Basin is warmer than usual for spring, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico and in the eastern Atlantic.
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