What we're calling 'Big Tuesday' offers 352 delegates among six states. Here's how many are at stake in each: 🔹 Michigan - 125 🔹 Washington - 89 🔹 Missouri - 68 🔹 Mississippi - 36 🔹 Idaho - 20 🔹 North Dakota - 14
Michigan figures to be a narrative-setting election. Sanders pulled off the upset there in 2016. If he can do it again, it could, once again, change the momentum of this race.
To do that, he's going to have to run up the score with young voters and whites without college degrees. Young voters were about one-fifth of the electorate in the 2016 Democratic primary, according to exit polls. But so far in this primary campaign, young voters have been down as a share of the electorate. Does that change with Sanders' appeal to them this week?
A significant share of Michigan's Democratic primary electorate is made up of whites without college degrees — 36% in 2016. Sanders won 57% of them. Black voters could be a significant factor as well. In 2016, they were 21% of the electorate, and Hillary Clinton won more than two-thirds of them. Black voters have buoyed Biden to this point, and he needs them to turn out for him again.
But perhaps the most important group that could swing the election is white women. They were 37% of the Michigan electorate in 2016, and Sanders won them narrowly. But on Super Tuesday overall, Biden won white women by double digits.conducted before Super Tuesday had Biden up by 6 points, but polls, as we've seen, can change quickly. Also signaling the state's importance, both campaigns have spent the most ad money there.
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