Can a brilliant debate performance save a stalling candidate? Are the front-runners a flub away from falling back to the pack? It’s complicated
that field has stayed largely unchanged after the first round? It raises the question: Do these debates even matter? That is, do they have the potential to change the primary in any meaningful way?First, a bit of context about these 2020 debates. What we’re witnessing in this Democratic primary is a new phenomenon. There isn’t much precedent for a crop of candidates this large, with such clearly defined tiers, and with so many strong, viable candidates at the top.
Azari adds that the relatively crowded top tier of contenders — Biden, Harris, Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren — is a new phenomenon for the Democratic Party in the post-1972 era of the modern presidential primary. “If you remember, in 2008, everybody freaked out that both Obama and Clinton were still in the race and both good and qualified. Like ‘Oh my god, what do we do?'” Azari tells.
The thick middle tier and the number of viable frontrunners — at least at this point in race — makes it hard to look to past primaries for clues about the current one. “We’re in pretty new territory,” Azari says. “We know from the research that debates can change people’s minds, but we don’t know how it applies to a field like this one.”
With that in mind, two questions loom over the second debate this week: Can a second-tier candidate move into the first tier? And is there room in the top tier for a Klobuchar or a Castro? At this point in the race, with 10 candidates onstage each night, what most voters tend to do is choose a candidate they like and compare the rest of the field to their pick, says, a communications professor at the University of Alabama-Birmingham and an expert on debates. The challenge for a middle-of-the-pack candidate, Benoit says, is to perform well enough in the debates that you become the first choice for enough people to claw your way into the top tier of candidates.
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