Tropical development will be slightly possible in the Gulf next week
August 17, 6 a.m.
And in the eastern Pacific, Fernanda has strengthened to a category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 75 mph. The other two areas of development will likely become a tropical system over the next two days.Tropical Storm Fernanda has formed in the Eastern Pacific, and flanking it are two more areas of potential development that could also soon become named storms. Despite the rapid increase in activity through the Pacific, none of the storms will have any impact on us.
The Atlantic Basin remains quiet for the next 7 days, though a series of tropical waves through the main development region combined with extremely warm water temperatures could yield some bubbling tropical activity later in the month.While there's no immediate activity in the Atlantic Basin, we are keeping our eyes on a few tropical waves that could potentially develop down the line. There are no threats to Texas over the next week or more.
In addition to the Saharan dust, we're monitoring a tropical wave off the coast of Africa that has a medium chance of development later this week into early next week when it tracks closer to the Lesser Antilles and moves into an area of decreased wind shear in the central Atlantic.A large plume of Saharan dust will stick around in southeast Texas through Friday. Individuals with asthma or allergies may want to minimize their time outdoors.
We are also keeping an eye on a tropical wave approaching the Caribbean. Development odds are down to just 20% over the next seven days as the storm encounters more shear and Saharan dust.The main point of interest in the tropics for Texas is the plume of Saharan dust that is moving into the Gulf of Mexico and headed our way this week. The dust will arrive late Tuesday and will stick around in southeast Texas through Friday.
Tropical Storm Calvin in the Pacific is expected to approach the Hawaiian Islands Wednesday, bringing some rain, high winds, and rough surf.We are tracking more Saharan dust arriving next week. A thicker plume is expected to arrive early next week. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Don in the north-central Atlantic is no threat to land.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, we're watching Sub-tropical storm Don, which is weakening and will have no impact on the US. Meanwhile, in the Pacific, Hurricane Calvin could bring some rain and winds to Hawaii by the middle of next week, though it will no longer be hurricane-strength at that point.
We are also monitoring our first Saharan dust cloud of the season, which looks to bring an initial round of dust to Houston on Friday, with more of the haze to come next week.There is a medium chance for tropical development during the next 7 days in the central Atlantic along a stalled out front that will be in the area. If a tropical system were to form, direct impacts on land are not expected.
A tropical wave just east of Bret is still disorganized, but conditions appear favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form later this week while the system moves westward. Formation odds have increased to 80% during the next seven days.Tropical Storm Bret is expected to strengthen as it moves west towards the Lesser Antilles.
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